The London Financial Times (FT) columnist group has made big predictions about the global situation this year. The following are the six predictions made by FT.
1. The evolution of the political situation in the United States
The Democratic Party will win more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections. The ruling party often loses some seats in the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections, and may fail miserably when the president’s support is below 50%. President Trump will face impeachment proceedings, although the new Congress The discussion will only be held in 2019, but the Democratic Party will first prepare relevant documents.
2. European reforms and the progress of BT
German Chancellor Merkel has promised to put forward a blueprint for reforming the European Union in March 2018, but she is unlikely to raise a promise to set up a euro zone budget. British Prime Minister May will continue to serve as Prime Minister, so that the Brexit negotiations will end in 2019. The reason is that neither the Conservative Party’s stay in Europe nor the Brexit faction will cause a civil war due to “anti-May”.
3. Tesla produces 250,000 Model 3s per year
no way. Tesla has lowered its production target from 400,000 to 200,000 to 300,000. However, the battery production is very problematic, so it is difficult to meet the standard, and it may be difficult to raise funds from the market and encounter huge operational challenges.
4. Will the US launch a trade war with China?
Will. It is most likely to take punitive actions, including tariffs, against China’s infringement of US intellectual property rights and subsidies for steel and aluminum production.
Of course, it also depends on China’s response; if China retaliates against the United States or sue the WTO, it means that the two sides will be hostile to each other.
Trump. (Associated Press)
5. What’s the situation in emerging markets?
The average economic growth rate of emerging markets in 2018 will still exceed 5%, and the growth rate announced by China will continue to exceed 6.5%. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will carry out more non-traditional economic policy experiments, because the 2019 general election may launch major actions against wealthy people’s assets hidden in the names of others.
6. Financial market performance
The S&P 500 index is expected to rise above 2,650 points. Because interest rate hikes are beneficial to bank stocks, the stock market can still maintain momentum, and the US 10-year Treasury bond yield will not exceed 3%. International oil prices will be able to stand above 70 US dollars per barrel, but whether they can stand firm will depend on the determination of other oil-producing countries to reduce output as the United States increases production.